Imagine an asset where the supply of new units is halved approximately every four years. Automatically. Regardless of what politicians, central banks, or markets think about it.
That is exactly what Bitcoin is.
Every four years, something called a halving occurs. The reward that the computers running the network receive for their work is halved. Simply put: fewer new bitcoins enter circulation. If demand remains unchanged or grows, and supply decreases, what happens to the price?
History answers that question quite clearly.
Halvings have occurred in 2012, 2016, 2020, and most recently in April 2024 (Bitcoin halving history, Coinbase). Each time, the same pattern has followed: the price rises sharply during the 12 to 18 months that follow, reaches a peak, corrects downward, and then begins to gather momentum for the next cycle. In the most recent cycle, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,296 in October 2025 (CoinMarketCap).
However, something interesting is happening now. The cycles are changing slightly in character.
Previously, it was private individuals who drove the upswings. Now it is institutions, pension funds, and corporate treasury departments that are buying. When spot-based Bitcoin ETFs were launched in the United States in January 2024, the door opened for entirely new capital (SEC, approval of spot Bitcoin ETF, January 2024). Bitcoin actually reached a new all-time high even before the 2024 halving, something that has never happened before. Institutional capital does not wait for the starting signal.
What does this mean for you as a business owner?
It means that Bitcoin will likely not behave as extremely up and down in each cycle as before. The fluctuations remain, but the base of long-term holders is growing. And each cycle has historically bottomed higher than the previous cycle’s peak.
The cycles are no guarantee and no trading strategy. However, they provide a framework for understanding what you are getting into. Bitcoin is not a quarterly project. It is an asset that works best with a time horizon of at least one, preferably two cycles.
And the next halving is scheduled for April 2028 (Bitcoin block explorer, Blockchain.com).
